Every election cycle is a referendum on the performance of the governing party. 2024 saw a vote of no confidence in the Democratic party, which lost the House, the Senate, and the presidency. Current voter dissatisfaction is largely due to the state of the economy, particularly the deleterious effects of inflation. In 2024, millions of disaffected voters chose not to vote.
According to U.S. News and World Report, 36% of Americans (an estimated 89 million people) stayed home.
According to The New York Times, Harris received 7.1 million fewer votes than did Biden in 2020. Despite media's focus on the rural voter, Harris lost the most ground in deep-Blue urban areas.
Gallup reported that not only was the economy the major issue of this election cycle, Trump was favored over Harris to handle economic trouble.
Gallup data indicates that this low public confidence in the Democratic party grew in the wake of rising inflation, with a majority of Americans reporting that they were worse off in 2024 than they were four years ago.
This is consistent with data collected by The Wall Street Journal, which shows how four years of inflation took the biggest toll on governing parties across the developed world, with the U.S. and the U.K. suffering the highest rates.
Given economic turbulence, the Republican party was favored to win, but had voting been as easy it was in 2020, the Democratic party would have fared better. According to U.S. News and World Report, the 2020 general election turnout rate of 66% was the highest of the 21st century "due to the expansion of mail-in and early voting" in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. When the greatest number of Americans exercises the power to vote, it turns out for the Democratic party. When the number of eligible voters stays near 60%, as is typical, the result is a tossup.
But contrary to received wisdom, demography is not destiny. Things change all the time, sometimes by great leaps.
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